CONTROLLED RISK: POSSIBLE?
All kinds of forecasts and prognoses have become an important part of our life. Above all this concerns the safety of such complex systems as nuclear power stations, modem aircraft and ships, and so forth. Early warning about natural calamities, be it earthquakes or twisters, is likewise of much importance. The latest achievements of nonlinear dynamics, of the theories of risk control and self-organizing criticality have given us a handy tool for the development of the prognostication science. But on the other hand, we have obtained added proof of the temporal limitations of prognosis as well. This range of problems is studied at the M. V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (RAS). Its two leading researchers-Deputy Director Georgi Malinetsky, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.), and Sergei Kurdyumov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)-have this to say on the subject. Up until the 1960s only two classes of processes were believed to be in existence. The first one comprised dynamic systems in which their future condition was rigorously determined by their past, i.e. it was quite predictable. Once you have a sufficient body of data on their past, you can look far into their future too, as it was argued by the French astronomer, mathematician and physicist Pierre Laplace (1749-1827), honorary member of the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences. Or, in modem parlance, once you have good computers and an adequate database, you can predict anything... As to the other class of processes, their future did not depend on their past. Only later, in the 1970s, did we realize there was yet another, third class of processes described in formal terms by dynamic systems. A very important class of processes which can be predicted but for a relatively short time ahead; next comes the hard statistics. A simple pendulum demonstrating dynamic randomness is a graphic example. But first, let's look into its design. Two rigidly interconnected rods are pivoted at a d ... Читать далее
____________________

Эта публикация была размещена на Либмонстре в другой стране и показалась интересной редакторам.

Полная версия: http://libmonster.ru/m/articles/view/CONTROLLED-RISK-POSSIBLE
Таджикистан Онлайн · 1058 days ago 0 1578
Professional Authors' Comments:
Order by: 
Per page: 
 
  • There are no comments yet
Guest comments




Who Like this
Likes · Dislikes
 
Empty
Actions
Rate
0 votes
Publisher
Таджикистан Онлайн
Душанбе, Tajikistan
09.09.2018 (1058 days ago)
Link
Permanent link to this publication:

http://library.tj/blogs/entry/CONTROLLED-RISK-POSSIBLE


© library.tj
 

Libmonster, International Network:

Actual publications:

Libmonster Partners

Actual publications:

Latest ARTICLES:

Latest BOOKS:

Actual publications:

LIBRARY.TJ is a Tajik open digital library, repository of author's heritage and archive

Register & start to create your original collection of articles, books, research, biographies, photographs, files. It's convenient and free. Click here to register as an author. Share with the world your works!
CONTROLLED RISK: POSSIBLE?
 

Contacts
Watch out for new publications:

About · News · For Advertisers · Donate to Libmonster

Digital Library of Tajikistan ® All rights reserved.
2018-2021, LIBRARY.TJ is a part of Libmonster, international library network (open map)


LIBMONSTER NETWORK ONE WORLD - ONE LIBRARY

US-Great Britain Sweden Serbia
Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Moldova Tajikistan Estonia Russia-2 Belarus-2

Create and store your author's collection at Libmonster: articles, books, studies. Libmonster will spread your heritage all over the world (through a network of branches, partner libraries, search engines, social networks). You will be able to share a link to your profile with colleagues, students, readers and other interested parties, in order to acquaint them with your copyright heritage. After registration at your disposal - more than 100 tools for creating your own author's collection. It is free: it was, it is and always will be.

Download app for smartphones