"Despite appreciable progress, the problem of earthquake A-X prognostication remains unresolved"* - this conclusion is drawn by an expert in this field Mikhail Savin, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.) in an article published in the DV Ucheny (Far Eastern Scientist) newspaper of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He points out that natural calamities of this kind are still inflicting staggering material damage on many regions of our planet, above all countries of the Pacific Seismic Belt. And the annual death toll reaches tens and hundreds of thousands. One latest example was a major earthquake near the Indonesian island of Sumatra which produced devastating tsunami waves which took the lives of hundreds of thousands of local residents and reduced to rubble many local towns and resorts. And the local population remains in constant stress because no one can tell them when the next fatal blow will strike.
A hundred years ago some of the RAS scientists were saying: "Seismology, the youngest branch of human knowledge, has been making rapid strides forward in recent time... Prognostication of earthquakes is now on the agenda." Statements of this kind can be heard to this day even despite the obvious lack of any tangible progress. Some of the more far-sighted experts, like Acad. Vladimir Strakhov, point out that prognostication means building a stable whole from a number of unstable components. In his view a comprehensive prognostication of earthquakes at the present time is impossible. An even more categorical view belongs to RAS Corresponding Member, Alexei Nikolaev: "One can see even now that the problem of earthquake prognostication will never be fully resolved in a determined way-nature always has several scenarios in store and any of them can be chosen."
But many geophysicists do not give up hopes. They point out that during earthquakes the earth crust cracks up, like china tableware. Stresses within it are accumulated until a rupture is formed at ... Читать далее