On April 2, 2012, the Center for Near and Middle East Studies (CISBS) held a scientific meeting on the topic "Afghanistan and Pakistan: current situation and development prospects". In addition to employees of the Institute of Physics and Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, representatives of a number of practical and educational institutions in Moscow participated in its work.

V. Ya. Belokrenitsky (head of the department. Center, Deputy Director. He noted that Afghanistan and Pakistan are linked by strong traditional ties, kinship of a number of major ethnic groups, and a long border of 2.5 thousand km. Karzai called Pakistan the" twin brother " of Afghanistan, and V. Ya. Belokrenitsky stressed that, despite this, sharp contradictions remain between the states. They may increase in the light of upcoming events in the coming years - the withdrawal of the main part of the NATO armed group, consisting of two-thirds of US forces, and the reduction of Western spending on maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan. The inseparability of the fate of the two neighboring countries makes it relevant to hold a meeting of experts on the current political and economic situation in them, trade, economic and other relations between the neighbors, and prospects for the foreseeable future.

V. G. Korgun (Head of the CISBSV Afghanistan Sector) stressed that the process of withdrawal of US-NATO coalition troops is complicated by a number of factors. The most important of them is the content and nature of the future government, in which, obviously, the Taliban and their allies will receive representation. Neighboring countries, primarily Pakistan and Iran, whose positions often do not coincide, have a serious impact on the process of transferring responsibility for security to Afghan hands. Iran demands immediate withdrawal of US troops. While providing economic aid to Afghanistan, Tehran is simultaneously supporting anti-government groups in order to strike at American positions. Pakistan could potentially play a leading role in

However, it is hindered by the deterioration of relations with the United States. China, according to the expert, is still taking a passive position, betting on economic cooperation. However, as one of the SCO leaders, China is likely to play an increasing role after the withdrawal of NATO troops. Afghanistan's northern neighbors (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) do not have a significant impact on the situation in the country, but their role is likely to increase after 2014. Russia's role will also increase. Today, V. G. Korgun noted, there is a transition process in Afghanistan, which is facing a large number of problems and challenges.

P. P. Sikoev (IB RAS) devoted his speech to the analysis of the Afghan society as it will be by 2014. He examined in detail the role of the Muslim clergy, a powerful stratum that is able to adapt to changing conditions and integrate into the structure of state power. Noting that the internal struggle in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly interethnic, P. P. Sikoev made an interesting observation that the clergy did not use the integration opportunities of Islam, since they themselves were divided along regional and ethnic lines. The expert did not rule out that the leaders of many Pashtun tribes in both Pakistan and Afghanistan have long been cooperating with the Taliban, most of whom are Pashtuns. As for the nepushtuns, in the run-up to 2014, they are preparing for themselves withdrawal positions in order to continue the war if necessary and defend the socio-political gains of recent decades. At the same time, the leaders of the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras would like to achieve the transformation of Afghanistan from a unitary and centralized state into a federal state. Some of them are in favor of reducing the power of the president and transforming the country into a parliamentary republic. Speaking about a significant number of parties that have recently appeared in the political arena, P. P. Sikoev noted that most of them are former "tanzim" (detachments) of "mujahideen" ("fighters for the faith" of the 1980s), which were transformed into political parties. With a possible change of government in 2014, they will break up and go back to their "ethnic apartments". According to the speaker, historical experience has proved that the problem of creating a modern, stable and civilized Afghanistan cannot be solved with the help of external aggression, and reducing foreign interference will benefit the country.

Shah Mahmud (MGIMO University) Russian Foreign Ministry) touched upon the prospects of negotiations with the Taliban and the future of Afghanistan. He noted that the Taliban movement is heterogeneous, some of them have already supported the ruling coalition in Kabul. According to his estimates, about 400 former Taliban members are in President Karzai's entourage and are actively involved in the country's governance processes. This, apparently, can explain the rather calm situation in the southern provinces of Afghanistan (Kandahar, Helmand, etc.) in recent years. Speaking about the future situation in the country (after the withdrawal of the main part of foreign troops), Shah Mahmud did not rule out sharp splits and divisions between local political forces, which will be fully joined by irreconcilable, i.e. representatives of the old guard of the Taliban movement and its new generation who are in opposition to the current regime. The resumption of a tough confrontation between Pashtuns and non - Pashtuns, on the one hand, and within these groups of the politically active population, on the other, is not excluded.

A. V. Manoilo (MSU) devoted his speech to the US policy in Afghanistan. He noted that Washington's foreign policy line in general theoretical terms constantly fluctuates between two poles - values and interests, i.e. between the predominance of ideological and pragmatic tasks. In connection with this general approach, changes in American policy in Afghanistan were characteristic: at first, after the events of 2001, ideological motives prevailed in it, and over time pragmatic ones came to the fore. Answering the question about the preservation of American positions in Afghanistan after 2014, A. V. Manoilo pointed out the importance of the Iranian factor in assessing the prospects for the presence of the US armed group in Afghanistan, which is neighboring to Iran.

M. R. Arunova (IB RAS) made a detailed report on the SCO and the Afghan problem. She noted that after 2014, the regionalization of the Afghan issue will most likely occur, i.e., the strengthening of influence on it by regional powers, including in the "Sco format". The latter was already discussed in 2009-2011 at meetings of the presidents of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and the Russian Federation, representatives of the leadership of the executive bodies of the SCO, CIS, EurAsEC and CSTO, as well as at the SCO summit. The speaker outlined her vision for the implementation of the initiatives put forward during these meetings, focusing on options for ways

strengthening the fight against Afghan drug trafficking and prospects for expanding the SCO membership to include Afghanistan in one status or another.

S. N. Kamenev (Head of the Pakistan Sector of the CISBSV) described in detail the impact of the Afghan situation on the economy of Pakistan. He stressed that the two countries have close economic relations, primarily trade ties. Currently, Afghanistan ranks second in Pakistan's exports, behind only the United States. Of the total volume of Pakistani exports in 2010/11 in the amount of $ 25 billion. Afghanistan accounted for 2.5 billion rubles, while the share of the neighboring country in Pakistani imports is extremely insignificant. At the same time, goods imported into Afghanistan from Pakistan often end up on Pakistani territory again, which causes outrage among local entrepreneurs. Their attempts to stop smuggling end in failure due to the corruption of both Pakistani and Afghan officials. According to Transparency International, out of 182 countries in the world, Afghanistan ranks 180th in terms of corruption, while Pakistan ranks 134th. Touching upon one of the most serious pain points in the economy of Pakistan, the energy problem and the acute shortage of electricity, S. N. Kamenev noted that laying a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan, as well as building a power transmission line from Tajikistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan (CASA-1000 project) could mitigate the problem. However, the implementation of these projects is being delayed due to the lack of security in Afghanistan. The instability of the Afghan domestic political situation forces Pakistan to spend huge amounts of money on the fight against terrorism. According to official data, it spent $ 67 billion on these purposes from 2001 to 2011.

Samiullah Puya (Voice of Russia Radio Station) in his speech touched upon the problems of Afghan-Pakistani relations related to the unresolved issue of the border between the two states. Afghanistan, the speaker noted, is the initiator of disputes over the border, which is called the "Durand Line", after the British official who signed the agreement on the border between British India and Afghanistan with the Afghan Emir Abdurrahman Khan in 1893. After the arrival of a new neighbor, Pakistan, in 1947, Kabul refused to recognize the Durand Line as its official border. Another challenge that has long existed in relations between the two countries is the desire of Kabul to act as a defender of the special rights and interests of the Pashtuns of Pakistan and to support the occasional sentiment in their midst in favor of creating an "independent Pashtunistan". Samiullah Puya agreed that the Afghan side has repeatedly initiated border disputes and related conflicts, and now it can make a decisive contribution to resolving border-territorial disputes between neighbors.

N. A. Zamaraeva (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) stressed that Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are contradictory due to a number of historical and modern reasons. Unresolved issues in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are the presence of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, cross-border raids by Afghan militants, the availability of places of refuge for them in the Federal Government Tribal Area Agencies (TFIs), etc. However, the most acute problems in relations between the two states will arise, as the speaker noted, in the future, after the withdrawal of US and NATO combat units from Afghanistan. Islamabad will seek to strengthen its influence in the neighboring country. He can do this by relying on the strengthened positions of the Taliban and their allies, primarily the Haqqani Network. Kabul is preparing in advance to repel such encroachments. He is jealous of American attempts to negotiate with the Taliban over his head and believes that they are primarily beneficial to Islamabad. Such contradictions between Afghanistan and Pakistan can only increase as the deadline for the withdrawal of Western forces approaches.

A. K. Lukoyanov (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences), disagreeing with the majority of participants in the meeting, analyzed the regional situation from the position of the US hegemony, which needs "not allies, but vassals." Modern Afghanistan and Pakistan were described by him as dependent on Washington players. Despite Pakistan's interference in the neighboring country's internal affairs, its leadership sees Islamabad as an ally, since both are equally dependent on Washington.

Omar Nessar (IB RAS) noted that a certain weakening of the Taliban militarily, unfortunately, did not reduce the threat of terrorist acts emanating from them. In 2009-2010. The Taliban and other terrorist organizations have become more active in the north of the country for the first time since the start of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Surge in Taliban activity

The situation in northern Afghanistan is still a serious concern for the countries of former Soviet Central Asia, which consider religious extremism their "main enemy". According to O. Nessar, Afghanistan today, 10 years after the start of the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom, is perceived by regional countries as a source of extremism and drug trafficking, and by some circles-as a threat of using the Afghan problem to consolidate the US and NATO military forces in the region. In turn, the attitude of the states of the region to these threats depends on the internal political situation in them. At the same time, differences in approaches to resolving the Afghan problem harm the coordinated activities of such regional organizations as the SCO and the CSTO.

I. V. Zhmuida (IB RAS) devoted a detailed presentation to the topic "Afghan refugees in Pakistan". She noted that mass migration began in late 1979 due to the war in Afghanistan. Initially, more than 300,000 Afghan residents were estimated to have moved to Pakistan; by 1983, the number had exceeded 3 million, and at the "peak" time (1992), it reached 3.5 million. This in itself is a phenomenal phenomenon in modern world history. Currently, according to some estimates, the number of refugees is 2.2 million, and according to others-1.7 million people. According to the latest estimates, 82% of registered Afghan refugees do not intend to return to their homeland, although the Pakistani authorities, having had enough of the problems that have arisen from their stay (predatory land grazing, illegal use of pastures, deforestation, aggravation of the criminal situation, the emergence of epidemics, etc.), intend to use various measures to return refugees to their homeland.

At the same time, I. Zhmuida stressed that the presence of rich Afghans in Pakistan had its positive consequences: investing capital in real estate, trade, and various, though not always legal, operations, including those related to drug trafficking and arms trafficking. These days, rich Afghan refugees have concentrated vehicles and transportation not only in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (formerly the Northwestern Border Province), but also, in fact, all of Pakistan. The largest number of migrants were placed in 48 tent camps (5 thousand people each) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in the territory of the federal government tribes and in Balochistan. As a rule, they lived and continue to exist on welfare, content with casual earnings.

I. N. Serenko (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her speech "Educational aspect of the Taliban threat in the regional context" noted that the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, who were once prematurely buried by the Americans and their allies (in 2001), still remain the main force of resistance to "foreign aggression" in the Afghan-Pakistani direction. And this is happening despite all the efforts of the international coalition in the fight against terrorism. The persistence of the Taliban phenomenon is due to a number of factors, including education. We are talking about the use of religious schools and theological seminaries by the ideologues of "Taliban" not only to spread the ideas of radical Islam, but also to prepare students for sabotage and terrorist activities.

In her report "The Baloch Factor in Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations", M. Y. Morozova (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) emphasized that Balochistan, the poorest province in Pakistan, occupies an important strategic position in connection with the events in Afghanistan. Hence the increased attention to it on the part of not only neighbors, but also world powers. After the United States and Pakistan disagreed over the freedom of action that the Afghan Taliban gained in Pakistani Balochistan (mainly in the north of the province, in the area of the provincial center of Quetta), American assistance to the province was reduced. The vacant niche was quickly occupied by China, which began construction of a wide network of roads in the province and the deep-water port of Gwadar. Pakistan believes that India is showing great interest in the situation in Balochistan, which it considers from the point of view of its transport cooperation with Iran. Islamabad is waiting for the decision of foreign sponsors on financing the construction of gas pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan through Afghanistan. Both of them should be laid across the territory of Balochistan. Among the problems associated with the proposed construction, the most important place is occupied by security, and it, as M.Y. Morozova emphasized, largely depends on the leaders of the Baloch tribal formations.

A. A. Suvorova's report on the first Pakistani Oscar emphasized the ambivalence of the situation in which Pakistani-American relations found themselves. On the one hand, it is the first time that a film of Pakistani origin has received such high recognition in America, and on the other hand, Sharmina Ubaid - Chinnoi's documentary "Save Face" draws on the Pakistani culture.

reality in the most unsightly form. The film tells about cases of violent reprisals against women, whose faces are doused with acid by sadistic men. Disfigured women suffer both physically and mentally, often committing suicide. A. A. Suvorova noted that the official authorities of Pakistan tried to accept the news of the Oscar award with approval, but a significant part of public opinion is negative, believing that the United States specifically focuses on the negative, putting Pakistan in the position of the justifying party.

Vladimir Sotnikov (Institute of Political Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences) stressed that the Pakistani-American relations are still experiencing a serious crisis. It began in January 2011, when an American agent killed two Pakistanis on the streets of Lahore. The release of an American from punishment by a court decision after paying so-called blood money to the relatives of the victims caused a deep discontent in society. It increased after US special forces killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a raid on Pakistani territory. Particularly outraged was the fact that the Americans acted alone, without warning the official authorities of Pakistan, and then exposed them in an unsightly light, as it turned out that "terrorist No. 1" for five years lived in the main city of the Pakistani military Abbottabad, near the capital of the country. Relations between the two countries have been tense throughout 2011, falling to their lowest level on November 26, when 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a raid by American planes that mistakenly fired at a fortified post on the Pakistan-Afghanistan mountain border. In response to the incident, Islamabad decided to block the supply routes of US and NATO groups in Afghanistan.

Only in the spring of 2012 did signs of improvement appear, although the two sides have not yet agreed on the terms and conditions for resuming the so-called southern supply route for foreign troops in Afghanistan. At the same time, according to V. I. Sotnikov, both sides are interested in each other. The United States cannot do without Pakistan in solving the Afghan problem, and Pakistan cannot do without Washington's financial, economic, and military-technical assistance. Therefore, in the future, the speaker noted, Pakistani-American relations will strengthen, but Islamabad, listening to public opinion in the country, will try to pretend that it does not tolerate pressure and pressure from the "American uncle". There may also be manifestations of a certain independence in Pakistan's foreign policy, but, in fact, Islamabad's relations with Washington will be distinguished by a well-known "duplicity". As for the United States, it will pursue a fairly firm course towards Pakistan based on the imperatives of its foreign policy doctrine.

U. V. Okimbekov (IB RAS) devoted his speech mainly to trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan at the present stage. He noted that the official data of Pakistani statistics are very different from the Afghan statistics, which makes it difficult to reliably assess the trends in the development of trade relations between them. According to the data of the Pakistani side, since 2001, the volume of trade turnover with Afghanistan has been growing at a high rate every year. By 2008 They reached $ 1.5 billion, with $ 1.3 billion, or 87%, accounted for Pakistani exports. In the next two years, according to the same data, the trade turnover increased to $ 2.5 billion, while the share of exports fell to 70%. Data from Afghan statistics indicate something else, namely, both a decrease in the share of Pakistani imports in Afghanistan's trade turnover, and a slowdown in the growth rate of trade itself. By 2010, total Afghan imports reached $ 5.1 billion. Exports from Pakistan accounted for only 12% ($600 million), while Uzbekistan (21%) and China (14%) ranked first.

Noting, however, the great potential of cooperation in the trade and economic field, U. V. Okimbekov focused on such a potentially conflicting issue of Afghan-Pakistani cooperation as the division of the Kabul River water used for irrigation by both countries. Plans to build water intake facilities in Afghanistan are of concern to Pakistan, which is experiencing an acute shortage of water for irrigation purposes and fears a reduction in the flow of water from the Kabul River to its fields.

Speaking on the preliminary results of his bachelor's thesis, V. V. Shikin (MGIMO) emphasized the significant role of India in the reconstruction of the Afghan economy. India is helping Afghanistan financially and technically. It competes with Pakistan and China. The achievement of the Indian side was its recent winning of a number of large tenders, participation in the construction of roads and other industrial infrastructure facilities. The volume of Indian-Afghan trade is also significant ($1.5 billion). Perspec-

V. V. Shikin assessed the prospects of investment and trade cooperation between India and Afghanistan as encouraging.

In conclusion, the sides exchanged views on the issues raised at the scientific meeting. Summing up the meeting, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky noted the content of the reports and presentations and emphasized the contribution that the experts made to understanding the complex problems of the current situation in the region south of the Russian borders.

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