Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya Publ., 2013, 184 p.

E. O. Kasaev's monograph is devoted to the general characteristics of Qatar's economic development. It is based on data gathered by the author from international and national statistics.

The advantage of the peer-reviewed work is that its author independently calculated some macroeconomic indicators, while literally collecting fragmented, rather than consolidated, statistics of various specialized structures (p.9-10). In addition, the author used some hard-to-reach materials collected during his time in the diplomatic service in Qatar. Some of them are being put into scientific use for the first time. Of considerable interest are the personal observations of E. O. Kasayev and the information he obtained from conversations with Qatari and foreign specialists, including those employed in state institutions and large companies in the field of production, processing and export of hydrocarbons, as well as infrastructure construction.

E. O. Kasaev's choice of Qatar is due to several reasons. First, the current Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani (as, indeed, the former Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani) is pursuing an increasingly active foreign policy, interfering in the regional problems of the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean. Secondly, Qatar has large reserves of hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas. The geography of energy exports includes markets in many countries in Asia, South and North America, and Europe. The sale of raw materials in the European direction makes the Emirate a serious competitor to the Russian Gazprom.

In terms of the absolute size of natural gas supplies, Qatar is firmly among the world's leading players, which largely determine the price dynamics in some international markets. Gas and oil exports (in smaller volumes) provide the country with revenues reaching tens of billions of dollars.

In 2012, Qatar ranked first in the world in terms of GDP per capita at current prices. According to the calculations of experts of the International Monetary Fund( IMF), the value of the corresponding indicator for purchasing power parity (PPP) of currencies reached about 101 thousand dollars, while in Luxembourg, Qatar's constant rival in this "race" for primacy in terms of average per capita income in the world, it was almost 78 thousand dollars. [World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013]. At the same time, the same indicator in the United States reached only $ 51.7 thousand [World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013].

In addition, international statistics provided by experts from the IMF, the World Bank (WB) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) are not very accurate, and the values of many of the most important country macroeconomic indicators are constantly revised.

In one of his articles, E. O. Kasaev points out that it is quite difficult to get up-to-date official statistics in Qatar itself, since the relevant institutions publish information with a serious delay [Kasaev, 2013]. And they are not particularly accurate, because they are designed to take into account state interests, which are not always determined by specialists.

Since the backbone of Qatar's current economy is the oil and gas sector (p. 13), the Qatari economy depends on fluctuations in energy demand and prices. In this connection, the question arises as to the contribution of hydrocarbon products, or rather, rent payments, which make up the difference between the selling price and production costs, in the formation of GDP.

And here we are faced with an obvious contradiction. The World Development Indicators 2012 edition (hereinafter referred to as WDI) provides data according to which the total rent from oil and gas resources in Qatar's GDP did not exceed 27.9% in 2010; for comparison, I will cite the corresponding data for Saudi Arabia (53.7%), Kuwait (43%), the United Arab Emirates (20.4%) and Iran (30.5%) [World Development Indicators 2012, 2012, p. 205-206].

According to these WDI statistics, the thesis of the author of the peer-reviewed monograph on the decisive influence of revenues from hydrocarbon exports on the formation of Qatari GDP is not confirmed.

What, then, is the understanding of the information provided by WDI experts on the share of rent payments in Qatar's GDP (approximately 28%)?

Standard data on the industry structure of a given state's GDP can help here, but they are not available in the WDI handbook. To some extent, this is offset by statistics contained in the latest CIA World Factbook electronic edition: at the end of 2012, agriculture in Qatar was practically absent (0.1% of GDP), the service sector accounted for no more than 26%, the share of mining, manufacturing and construction accounted for 73.6% [The World Factbook 2013 14]. These indicators, for all their possible and unavoidable inaccuracy, better reflect the real state of affairs than the WDI data.

Moreover, the service sector - including trade, personal services, financial services, transportation, housing and office construction-is ultimately the result of the distribution and redistribution of primary revenues from the export of hydrocarbons, mainly liquefied natural gas (LNG).

To be fair, the World Bank provides (albeit understated) data on the share of the oil and gas sector in Qatari exports in 2010. According to data published in the WDI, the share of this sector is only 73% of the total value of exports [World Development Indicators 2012, p. 227]. A more thorough analysis of the data provided in the WDI yearbook on the structure of Qatar's exports draws attention to the following fact. Statistics do not cover all 100% of exports, because along with the above-mentioned share of oil and gas (73%), only the share of industry is indicated, which is only 5% of exports. We add up these indicators and get 78%. It is easy to calculate that there is no information about the remaining 22% in this source.

This is where the book by E. O. Kasaev comes to the rescue, which graphically depicts the industry structure of Qatari exports in 2007 and 2010, independently calculated by the author on the basis of Qatari statistics in 2012 (p. 63). From these calculations, it follows that the share of LNG in the emirate's total exports is growing, while the same indicator for oil is gradually decreasing, despite the quantitative growth of its supplies.

In addition, Qatari exports accounted for approximately 83% of total revenues from oil, LNG, propane, butane, and gas condensate sales in 2010, with petrochemicals and petroleum products accounting for about 12% (a total of 95%). This is a real measure of the Qatari economy's dependence on the oil and gas sector.

Based on this, the author of the monograph predicts that in the next 5-10 years the emirate is unlikely to be able to reduce the share of energy carriers in the state's exports (p. 62).

This is a more convincing conclusion, and the author of the book deserves credit for not blindly following the IMF, CIA, and World Bank indicators, but building his own unbiased analysis of Qatari economic reality on the symbiosis of international and local statistics, which, as experience shows, are not always accurate enough.

After assessing the role of revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons for the Qatari economy, another general question arises related to the problem of necessary and at the same time possible diversification of the economies of various oil and gas countries. We are talking about large and small states located in different natural and climatic zones and having a narrow or wide range of minerals, i.e. ultimately differing in resource, labor, natural, territorial and other characteristics.

In relation to Qatar, this problem can be posed as follows: how effectively the emirate, with its relatively small and diverse population, can develop a multi-sectoral economy that includes various branches of manufacturing industry. At the same time, it is advisable to take into account the experience of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain, where over the past decades trade and financial centers, transport and information infrastructure have already been created to facilitate their foreign and domestic economic activities.

As for Qatar, despite its differences from the aforementioned states, trade, financial sector, transport and information technologies have been actively developing there over the past 5-10 years. At the same time, although certain restrictions remain on the activities of foreign firms (they, as a rule, cannot have more than 49% of the capital), both state-owned and joint (less often "purely" foreign) companies operate in the emirate.

But it would be wrong to consider economic diversification without taking into account the prospects of industry itself. If we take into account the presence of hydrocarbon raw materials,-

the conclusion is drawn about the possibility and desirability of developing petrochemical enterprises, production of building materials and other industries for which multi-stage oil and gas processing can become the most important or essential raw material component.

Nevertheless, Qatar has adopted a five-year economic development strategy for 2011-2016. (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy), which provides for the diversification of the local economy. The author of the monograph rightly draws readers ' attention to the fact that some of the forecast estimates recorded in the Strategy text may not correspond.

Thus, the document stipulates that starting from 2013, the emirate's GDP growth will be achieved mainly by increasing the share of the non-hydrocarbon sector, while the share of the hydrocarbon component will fall. According to E. O. Kasayev, this is unlikely to be implemented, since in 2015, after the possible lifting of the moratorium on further development of the Severnoye oil and gas condensate field, Qatar's largest, which was introduced in 2005, hydrocarbon production will increase again.

The Emirate will be able to achieve a significant reduction in its dependence on raw material exports only by 2030, but this requires significantly increasing the return on non-hydrocarbon industries and implementing projects related to alternative energy (p. 39).

This is quite a logical and logical conclusion, because, judging by the current situation described above, the oil and gas dominant in Qatar's external sales will remain dominant over other promising export items for many years to come.

Describing the main provisions of the five-year program, E. O. Kasaev provides a table containing indicators that are expected as a result of the implementation of the Strategy. Based on the existing statistics for 2011 and 2012, we can conclude that some of the forecast estimates of the compilers of this five-year plan were not justified.

The strategy, which was probably developed in 2007-2008, foresees that the emirate will have a population of 1.76 million people in 2012. Meanwhile, according to the World Bank's electronic database, this figure has already reached 2.05 million people in 2012 [http://data.worldbank.org/country/qatar. In the work of E. O. Kasaev, the figure of 2.2 million people is given (p. 179), which is probably closer to reality.

The advantage of the reviewed monograph is the conclusion of its author that state planning in the emirate is mainly carried out not by national, but by foreign specialists. In addition, foreign players, as a rule, provide (but do not sell!) unique technologies that help the Qatari economy progress, especially in the hydrocarbon sector (p. 53).

The author's attempt to study the problem of labor migration and assess its role for the Qatari economy is noteworthy. After all, the Emirate is the world leader in the number of migrants per capita of the indigenous population. Describing in detail the numerous legal, social and financial difficulties that lie in wait for visiting workers who want to earn money on the local market, the author still does not focus the reader's attention on the fact that workers voluntarily take such risks for a number of good reasons.

E. O. Kasaev did not mention these reasons on the pages of the monograph, because he probably considered that the conversations with representatives of various groups of Qatari labor migrants (highly qualified, skilled and semi-skilled workers) that he conducted in Qatar in 2010-2011 are not an official source. Only in one place does the author of the monograph report that, according to his observations, the average salary of migrant workers working on construction sites does not exceed $ 5-7 per day (p. 102).

For my part, I would like to note that I understand the author's concerns in many ways, but we should not underestimate and neglect the "field" material. Unfortunately, some Russian scientists, it seems to me, have formed an erroneous opinion that their own observations and conversations are not a serious source of information. At the same time, references to the memoirs and memoirs of foreign experts, journalists, and travelers, even in the solid works of Russian researchers, flash with enviable regularity. Hence a reasonable question: why such distrust of our own achievements? Modesty, of course, adorns a scientist, but there are limits to everything.

In some other passages of his work, E. O. Kasaev emphasizes that he obtained certain information from conversations with Qatari officials, diplomats and entrepreneurs (see, for example, pp. 55, 67, 81-83), but in the section on labor migration it would be appropriate to use this source of information more often.

Workers from the poorest countries in Asia are indeed in a difficult financial situation compared to the indigenous Qataris, but the level of income of migrant workers allows them not only to provide for their daily existence for themselves and their families, but also to expect to start their own business upon returning to their homeland and some other social and economic benefits. This was reported to me by the author of the book, because, while in Qatar, he conducted a "social survey" of foreign workers in the emirate regarding their earnings, spending and transfers of remaining funds to their families. We can only once again complain that these unique, valuable statistical and factual data available in the personal archive of E. O. Kasaev did not make it to the pages of the monograph.

At the same time, I would like to wish the author of the reviewed work to take this remark into account and, when republishing his research, not only saturate the previous text with relevant and interesting information that will appear in the future, but also include recordings of conversations with migrant workers in the appendix.

E. O. Kasayev is right to say that active labor migration does not hinder the economic success of the Emirate, but, on the contrary, contributes to it, since the benefits exceed the losses incurred by the Qatari economy due to the financial outflow of funds in the form of money transfers abroad (p.106).

In the World Bank's authoritative publication "World Bank Migration and Reminders Factbook 2011", statistics on the transfer of funds abroad by labor migrants (and foreign specialists) in Qatar are absent, since the emirate, along with some other countries (for example, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Canada) it does not provide this type of information.

However, one of the leading Qatari newspapers (citing a local financial sector source of confidence) reports that about $ 13 billion was transferred by migrants in 2011. By the end of 2013, the same indicator is likely to increase significantly, amounting to $ 22 billion. [The Peninsula, 19.10.2013].

It is worth emphasizing that Qatar still has a part of transfers that are not taken into account in the above statistics; but even on the basis of the approximate data indicated above (if they are correct), it can be assumed that labor migrants transfer abroad about 7.5-8% of Qatar's real GDP, which at the end of 2011 amounted to $ 171.5 billion. [http://data.worldbank.org/country/qatar].

This is quite a high indicator when compared with similar data for other oil and gas countries in the region. For example, in Saudi Arabia - about 6.5% [World Development Indicators 2012, 2012, p. 22, 384]. But in this case, there is no damage to the economic well-being of the country, rather the opposite.

With the help of migrants, Qatar provides, according to my estimate, about 75-80% of GDP production. This estimate takes into account the relative share of both Qatari and foreign workers (as well as their differences in qualifications and pay). It is easy to calculate that the financial return on labor of all foreigners working in Qatar is almost eight times higher than the total amount of money transfers abroad.

The funds accumulated by Qatar due to the constantly growing export of LNG are generally able to maintain a high standard of living for the indigenous Qatari population; this is supported by the emirate's state reserve fund, which in 2010 already reached about $ 110 billion, which allows the country to maintain a high rate of investment in major foreign projects, including the purchase of shares of foreign companies (p. 148). However, these same financial resources, if necessary, can also be used to maintain a decent level of income for all Qatari citizens.

With the help of simple mathematical calculations, it becomes obvious that if you divide the fund's funds equally among the indigenous Qatari residents (of whom there are about 250 thousand people), you get 440 thousand dollars for each true Qatari. And this is already, in my opinion, a good increase in salary, the average amount of which, according to the author of the reviewed book, is $ 20 thousand. per month (p. 102). So the monarchy is well prepared for the possible volatility (i.e., volatility) of energy prices in the future.

It is worth recalling that financial "surpluses" in the form of foreign exchange earnings from LNG exports allowed Qatar to survive the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 with minimal losses. Meanwhile, the consequences of the crisis were quite significant for a number of other oil and gas countries in the region, in particular the UAE.

The data on the main expenditure items of the Qatari budget in 2011-2012 presented in the monograph by E. O. Kasayev is interesting. The main one of these items was allocated for megaprojects, including infrastructure projects that require long-term investments. In the long run, they can have a serious impact on the growth characteristics of the Qatari economy, creating significant incentives for maintaining its progressive development (p.67). However, the unfortunate mistake of the author of the book is that he did not provide statistics on the revenue side of the budget, which would help to create a complete picture of the emirate's budget policy.

Noting some peculiarities of the state economic policy of the United States, as well as a number of European and Asian countries, E. O. Kasaev concludes that it is aimed at supporting its concerns operating in the emirate. A number of large foreign firms have been actively engaged in business in the territory of the monarchy for 10-15 years. Summarizing the positive experience of their activities can increase the competitiveness of Russian companies, which still pay insufficient attention to the problems associated with possible entry into the Qatari market.

Of particular interest is the section of the monograph devoted to the activities of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) (p. 149-157), which, along with Qatar and Russia, includes the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Iran and some other states. preparations for the first GECF gas summit held in Doha (p. 155).

The work done by E. O. Kasaev will undoubtedly be in demand by international experts: economists, political scientists, historians and lawyers. For the first time, the monograph analyzes the poorly studied norms of Qatari legislation regulating the procedure for attracting foreign investment to the local economy.

The legal translation of the Qatari Investment Law, published in one of the appendices (p. 169-174), was performed by an applicant from MGIMO (U) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia A. Bespalko, to whom the author deservedly expressed special gratitude (p. 10).

The relevance and scientific significance of the reviewed work are obvious. Since 1999, when the book of Russian Arabists V. A. Isaev and A. O. Filonika "The State of Qatar: Problems of Development" was published, which contains reference material on the history, politics, economy, culture and other aspects of the Emirate's life, the Qatari theme has temporarily disappeared into the shadows. E. O. Kasaev's research can once again draw readers ' attention to this monarchy.

The book is of interest to scientists, teachers, postgraduates and students as a textbook on the modern economy of Qatar. The information, conclusions and recommendations contained in this paper can be used by Russian business structures that intend to enter the Qatari market.

Unfortunately, E. O. Kasaev's monograph is not without its shortcomings. Some of them were noted earlier, and I would like to pay special attention to others.

It was worth expanding the section of the book devoted to state planning in Qatar, including by criticizing some provisions of state programs for economic development of the country. It seems that the author of the monograph was once again" modest " in presenting information, because in many of his journal publications he analyzed this issue in some detail.

It would be appropriate to take a closer look at Qatar's economic relations with Spain (p.141), so that this section of the book is not inferior in quality and comprehensiveness to the analysis of the state of trade and investment relations of the Emirate with two other European states - Great Britain and Germany (p. 130-141).

In the list of appendices, the author should add a translation of the main provisions of two key documents on which the current economic development of Qatar is based, the Qatar National Development Strategy 2011-2016 and the National Vision 2030 (the literal name of the documents).

We should take a more critical approach to evaluating the statistical data provided by international organizations, since these materials are not immune from errors and miscalculations.

It would be appropriate and useful if the author of the book did not limit himself to a detailed description of specific financial structures of the Emirate (pp. 80-83), but at the same time drew general conclusions about the ratio of public and private, commercial and Islamic banks in Qatar, as well as their impact on the state of the entire financial sector.

When analyzing Russian-Qatari economic relations (pp. 143-148), the author should identify possible competitive advantages of domestic companies that can gain a foothold in the emirate market in the future. In addition, in this section of the monograph, it would be possible to answer one more question: how will the conditions for conducting energy and raw materials business for foreign investors change if Russian technologies are widely used in the Qatari oil and gas sector?

Despite all the comments, the work of E. O. Kasayev is a serious independent study devoted to the analysis of key issues of economic development and social dynamics of Qatar at the beginning of this century. During the preparation and writing of the monograph, the author showed the ability to correctly define and formulate the goals and objectives of scientific research, as well as to comprehend and analyze the material being studied.

list of literature

Isaev V. A., Filonik A. O. Gosudarstvo Katara: problemy razvitiya [The State of Qatar: Problems of Development]. Moscow, 1999.

Kasasv E. O. Qatar: analysis and forecasting of energy policy [Electronic pecypej// Middle East Institute website, 21.10.2013 Access mode: http://www.nmes.ru/?p=18488. The World Factbook 2013-14. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2013.

http://data.worldbank.org/country/qatar.

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/vicws/rcports/tablcvicw.aspx?issharcd=truc&ispopular=scrics&pid=1.

The Peninsula, 19.10.2013.

World Development Indicators 2012. Washington, DC, 2012.

World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013.

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